Friday, July 22, 2011

UrbanDigs: Manhattan Pending Sales Starts To Slow (click below to go to article)

UrbanDigs: Manhattan Pending Sales Starts To Slow

This is some great stuff, time will tell if we are setting up for a weaker market or this is just seasonality doing the thing it does. Last year we saw the same thing happen, the "seasonality" effect kicked in earlier and stronger than was typical (Came in early July versus August) then leading us into a very strong 2011.

There is quite a bit of compelling macro stuff in the pipe; debt ceiling, US dollar/debt issues, the Euro/EU mess (will we see some big bank failures under the re-capitalization standards?)

What happens when this band-aide they are putting on Greece falls off? Do they allow Greece to go into a technical default/default? Portugal, Spain....Italy? I am a total layman here, but even to my very far off observer eyes, the potential out comes are mind boggling.

This certainly is not the data points sellers want to see (though it may just be normal seasonal stuff). But it strengthens my view that sellers should go away in July/August. Buyers should use the opportunity to negotiate hard and exercise patients.

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