Tuesday, November 1, 2016

A Lot of People are Asking Me about the Market

I was speaking with a client a few days ago, very smart guy, finance and currently running some very big stuff. We were talking about an offer he has out as well as the current state of the market, he made an interesting comment; "Feels like 2008, accept we are not going off a cliff". Now that may sound dramatic at first read, however if you recall the summer of 2008 and what the market was like it sort of nails it.

By this time I had started The Burkhardt Group, however I was advising against purchasing and was offering discounted rental commissions. That summer (2008) I felt the sales market in NYC was losing steam, however no one was really discussing this apparent fact. I had been out in NJ, Connecticut and Northern Westchester  looking at homes to purchase towards the end of 2007 and the real estate markets were already seriously waning. NYC still was more or less intact however things were just not right, the bull was showing some signs of weakness.

Today we are also seeing things slow down a bit, certainly well documented that the $4M+ market has weakened. We are still seeing strength and significant demand for prime homes under $1M as well as healthy action for reasonably priced 2 bedroom homes in solid locations (that is pretty general, but you know what I mean). That said we definitely feel that the market is cooling off a bit, without a doubt part of that is seasonality, elections. But I don't think anyone will argue with the idea that overall we are seeing things slowdown. Will this end badly? I don't think so. I think we will see a normalized market going into 2017, but hey anything can happen. Specifically though I don't see the abyss, worst case I see the ability for buyers to negotiate with less pressure and competition. Best case (for sellers) the bull becomes re-invigorated for no apparent reason (like in the Spring of 2016) after a hiatus of about 5 months.

We like the current state of the market, we actually do much better in a normal to declining market. Our clients have more leverage, less competition and more inventory to choose from. I created a business model that is appealing to a subsection of buyers, they work with us because of our method, simple as that.


Keith Burkhardt

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